lurkerwithout: (Tired hidden enigma)
lurkerwithout ([personal profile] lurkerwithout) wrote2006-07-07 11:46 pm
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Friday Board Games

Spent most of the night playing Power Grid. A nice game, though I learned that when using the USA map, picking a California starting point makes things MUCH more difficult. After that I played some Liar's Dice, which I absolutely suck at. I just can't figure out the odds on things to make safe bids...

[identity profile] spoonyone.livejournal.com 2006-07-08 07:16 pm (UTC)(link)
Weeeelll...figure out first how many dice are on the table.

It's a good bet that at a sixth of them are 1s.

It's also reasonable to assume that a third of them are any other number.

Then simply modify your guess by the makeup of the dice you have. If you have four 6s, then you can claim that there are an assumably large number of 6s (more than a third of them).

Most people tend not to bluff overmuch at Liar's Dice. If someone will put down a bet consistent with the above strategy, so if they wager that a third of the available dice are 4s then they PROBABLY have 4s and it's not smart to change the number to something else unless you have a dominating set of dice yourself. It's when people start to claim half of the dice are a certain number that you need to call their bluff.